Emerging Macro Trends – My perspective (Year 2005)

Macro Trends

The population is aging in Developed Economies but is getting younger in some Developing Economies.
Skill mismatch amongst countries.
Outsourcing / Offshoring are more prevalent.
Increasing Globalization and Qualitative Restrictions.
Increasing Regulatory Intervention.
The increasing role of NGOs in Global society.
Increase in speed of Change.
Free flow of Information and Ideas on real time.
Convergence of Industries, Competition can come from anywhere.
Conflict amongst Executive, Judiciary, Bureaucracy, NGOs and Corporates.
Collaboration and Partnership approach.
Over Capacity in most industries likely to stay.
Increasing Role of emerging economies in the growth of global GDP.
Rich getting richer but in some countries like India share of Rural income has also increased.
Piracy may be here to stay.
Virus attacks and hacking may continue.
Rising healthcare and pension costs.
Money power is the dominant power.
Literacy levels are going up.
Rising Unemployment/underemployment.
The increasing role of Corporations / NGOs / Individuals towards the development of society.
Role of media plays a big role in shaping society.
Declining role of some Global Institutions.
Knowledge Capital is more important than Financial Capital.
Unpredictable weather and Environment.
Consolidation and fragmentation of economies/countries continue to co exist.

Flatter structures.
The innovative and agile organization will have a relatively long life.
Role of leader undergoing a change.
Merit rather than the length of service and age criteria for growth.
Pink Slip culture is here to stay.
More and more people willing to take Ownership and Accountability.
An organization that empathizes with people and has a transparent, open and performance driven culture will grow faster than the others that don’t.
Only monetary incentives will not drive performance, people will look for Affection, Attention, Appreciation, and Achievement.
People look for Complex solutions for simple problems.
CEO’s / Governments may not cut losses because of Legacy costs and Social repercussions.

The pace of Innovation will continue to increase.
Technology will continue to Enable businesses to improve productivity.
Development cycles may continue to shorten.
More features and benefits will be available at a lower cost i.e better value for money.
More intelligence will be embedded in products.
Miniaturization of products.
Benefits of Collaboration may be maximum in Research.
One product for multiple consumer needs.

Greater awareness and higher Aspirations.
Women, Young adults, and children play a bigger role in all walks of life.
People are more stressed than ever before, fear, frustration, anxiety, and anger may continue to increase.
Lower trust and confidence in relationships.
Greed, Ego and short term approach could drive the behavior of people.
People are more health conscious.
People may look for solace in FAITH.
Personal agenda could be more important than Organization’s agenda.
People in emerging markets have started to assume more debt.
Entrepreneurial Spirit and risk taking ability is on the rise.

Competitive intensity will increase.
Competition can come from a different industry or geography.
Need to be Globally competitive.
Consolidation will happen but may not yield perceived results.
The consumer is more aware and has much more choices.
A shift of power with consumer intermediaries.
Buyers market.
Quicker commoditization of products.
Shorter product life cycles.
Time to market will shorten.
Development of used products markets.
Continued focus on cost reduction.
Consumers may not necessarily own the assets they would be happy to pay for use.
Segmentation of mass media.
Organizations are more focused on the benefits of Ad Spend.
Individual solutions rather than mass market.
Consumer may not necessarily pay for a Brand.

Free flow of Capital across borders.
Development of complex derivatives instruments.
Capital market expectations drive the behavior of an organization which in turn also impacts the behavior of the society.
Power of US $ is declining.
Allocation of Capital for emerging markets may increase.
Growth Capital is not a constraint.
Artificial wealth creation through inflation of assets.

Will the world really become one i.e boundaryless in a true sense?
Will BRIC economies be as powerful as they are perceived by Goldman Sachs?
Will the definition of CORE undergo a change?
Will there be another technology revolution that will impact Communication and Mobility?
Can the human brain be replaced by Computers and human actions replaced by robots?
How will Biotechnology impact our lives?
Will the industry cycles continue?
How long will productivity continue to improve?
How will the role of Institutions (including Educational institutions) impact the future of society?
When will there be a commercial substitute for petrol?
Reliance on Gold and US$ as investment options?

April 2005