Macro Trends
- The population is aging in Developed Economies but is getting younger in some Developing Economies.
- Skill mismatch amongst countries.
- Outsourcing / Offshoring are more prevalent.
- Increasing Globalization and Qualitative Restrictions.
- Increasing Regulatory Intervention.
- The increasing role of NGOs in Global society.
- Increase in speed of Change.
- Free flow of Information and Ideas on real time.
- Convergence of Industries, Competition can come from anywhere.
- Conflict amongst Executive, Judiciary, Bureaucracy, NGOs and Corporates.
- Collaboration and Partnership approach.
- Over Capacity in most industries likely to stay.
- Increasing Role of emerging economies in the growth of global GDP.
- Rich getting richer but in some countries like India share of Rural income has also increased.
- Piracy may be here to stay.
- Virus attacks and hacking may continue.
- Rising healthcare and pension costs.
- Money power is the dominant power.
- Literacy levels are going up.
- Rising Unemployment/underemployment.
- The increasing role of Corporations / NGOs / Individuals towards the development of society.
- Role of media plays a big role in shaping society.
- Declining role of some Global Institutions.
- Knowledge Capital is more important than Financial Capital.
- Unpredictable weather and Environment.
- Consolidation and fragmentation of economies/countries continue to co exist.
Organization Structure
- Flatter structures.
- The innovative and agile organization will have a relatively long life.
- Role of leader undergoing a change.
- Merit rather than the length of service and age criteria for growth.
- Pink Slip culture is here to stay.
- More and more people willing to take Ownership and Accountability.
- An organization that empathizes with people and has a transparent, open and performance driven culture will grow faster than the others that don’t.
- Only monetary incentives will not drive performance, people will look for Affection, Attention, Appreciation, and Achievement.
- People look for Complex solutions for simple problems.
- CEO’s / Governments may not cut losses because of Legacy costs and Social repercussions.
Science and Technology
- The pace of Innovation will continue to increase.
- Technology will continue to Enable businesses to improve productivity.
- Development cycles may continue to shorten.
- More features and benefits will be available at a lower cost i.e better value for money.
- More intelligence will be embedded in products.
- Miniaturization of products.
- Benefits of Collaboration may be maximum in Research.
- One product for multiple consumer needs.
Lifestyle and People Behavior
- Greater awareness and higher Aspirations.
- Women, Young adults, and children play a bigger role in all walks of life.
- People are more stressed than ever before, fear, frustration, anxiety, and anger may continue to increase.
- Lower trust and confidence in relationships.
- Greed, Ego and short term approach could drive the behavior of people.
- People are more health conscious.
- People may look for solace in FAITH.
- Personal agenda could be more important than Organization’s agenda.
- People in emerging markets have started to assume more debt.
- Entrepreneurial Spirit and
risk taking abilityis on the rise.
Customer, Markets, and Products
- Competitive intensity will increase.
- Competition can come from a different industry or geography.
- Need to be Globally competitive.
- Consolidation will happen but may not yield perceived results.
- The consumer is more aware and has much more choices.
- A shift of power with consumer intermediaries.
- Buyers market.
- Quicker commoditization of products.
- Shorter product life cycles.
- Time to market will shorten.
- Development of used products markets.
- Continued focus on cost reduction.
- Consumers may not necessarily own the assets they would be happy to pay for use.
- Segmentation of mass media.
- Organizations are more focused on the benefits of Ad Spend.
- Individual solutions rather than mass market.
- Consumer may not necessarily pay for a Brand.
Financial Markets
- Free flow of Capital across borders.
- Development of complex derivatives instruments.
- Capital market expectations drive the behavior of an organization which in turn also impacts the behavior of the society.
- Power of US $ is declining.
- Allocation of Capital for emerging markets may increase.
- Growth Capital is not a constraint.
- Artificial wealth creation through inflation of assets.
Some Questions
- Will the world really become one i.e boundaryless in a true sense?
- Will BRIC economies be as powerful as they are perceived by Goldman Sachs?
- Will the definition of CORE undergo a change?
- Will there be another technology revolution that will impact Communication and Mobility?
- Can the human brain be replaced by Computers and human actions replaced by robots?
- How will Biotechnology impact our lives?
- Will the industry cycles continue?
- How long will productivity continue to improve?
- How will the role of Institutions (including Educational institutions) impact the future of society?
- When will there be a commercial substitute for petrol?
- Reliance on Gold and US$ as investment options?
April 2005